Japan Markets ViewTOHO (9602): “Chiikawa” Boost Drives Stock Recovery as Social Media Heats Up with Fan Theories

 

[Tetsutaro Abe, QUICK Market Eyes] TOHO’s stock price is picking up momentum, driven by the effect of a movie adaptation of the popular character “Chiikawa.” Oricon News reported on July 24 that the first film adaptation of “Chiikawa,” titled “Chiikawa the Movie: The Secret of Mermaid Island,” opened in theaters on that day. The report stated that its first-day box office revenue reached JPY990.0 mn. Speculation over increased box office revenue drew buying interest.

“Chiikawa” is created by illustrator Nagano. It is immensely popular content that depicts the daily lives of the main character, Chiikawa, and close friends Hachiware and Usagi, as well as companions Rakko and Kurimanju. Contrary to its adorable visuals, the series captivates a broad audience through its unique world view, where characters face harsh labor and absurd trials.

Among TOHO’s distributed films, “Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba – Infinity Castle Arc” was rated PG12, meaning children under 12 need parental guidance, due to intense battle depictions. That film recorded a historical mega-hit in the previous year. In contrast, “Chiikawa the Movie” is rated G (General Audiences, with no age restrictions). Its ability to attract a wide audience—from families with young children to adults—and its high occupancy rates are major strengths from a box office perspective.

Furthermore, the driving force behind the hit of “The Secret of Mermaid Island” lies in its overwhelming visual quality that impresses fans of the original work. It also features a story development that engages first-time viewers. The movie is packed with direction unique to anime, such as dynamic battle scenes, a rap by the popular character Usagi, and singing by the enemy character Siren. The overall quality is high enough for fans of the original work to fully enjoy. Furthermore, intense debate and speculation broke out on social media regarding the final scene. Comments included, “It feels like a story by Japanese mystery author Keigo Higashino, but with cute characters,” and “Isn’t it close to Seishi Yokomizo’s world view?” On social media, many first-time viewers reacted that their expectations were completely subverted. They had expected a heartwarming and idyllic story featuring “Chiikawa”, literally meaning Small and Cute. In addition, fans are repeatedly visiting theaters with family and friends to see the reactions of first-time viewers. This is taking on the characteristics of a long-running hit involving all age groups.

Accompanying the movie release, large-scale collaborations with different industries are accelerating. These include a stamp rally with Tokyo Metro (9023) and various promotional campaigns at Seven-Eleven, a subsidiary of 7&I Holdings (3382). The increased exposure in urban areas is creating a virtuous cycle that leads to further growth in theater attendance. TOHO’s main role in this film centers on distribution and movie theater operation (such as TOHO Cinemas), which are responsible for theatrical screenings.

Analyst Kazuki Sakaguchi of Daiwa Securities stated in a report dated July 24 that QTORY (Chuo City, Tokyo) serves as the lead member of the production committee. QTORY handles animation production and planning. It is followed by Fuji Television Network and TOHO, with TOHO’s investment ratio estimated at around 10% to 15%. Cypic, a subsidiary of CyberAgent (4751), is in charge of animation production. Sakaguchi presented a view that, assuming final box office revenue of JPY15.0 bn, a 10% investment ratio by TOHO, and production costs of JPY1.0 bn, the boosting effect on TOHO’s gross profit can be estimated. It is calculated at approximately JPY2.0 bn in theatrical distribution and approximately JPY2.5 bn in movie exhibition, totaling approximately JPY4.5 bn.

TOHO’s stock price surged by approximately 6% on July 24. In August 2025, the stock price hit a high of JPY2,059, driven by strong performance from “Kokuho” and “Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba – Infinity Castle Arc Chapter 1: Akaza’s Return.” It subsequently declined to JPY1,191 in May 2026. The stock price may strengthen its recovery trend on expectations of upward revisions to current fiscal year earnings forecasts. This scenario could occur if an expanding repeat-viewer base and strong box office ranking numbers after the weekend are confirmed.

 

(Reported on July 27, 2026)

 

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