Data Set
QUICK Probability of Default
Delivery FrequencyWeekly
FrequencyAround 15:30 JST every Wednesday
*If Wednesday is a holiday in Japan, it will be updated on the next business day.
SourceQUICK Corp.

QUICK Probability of Default (PD) is an estimate of the probability of default of each individual company. This service uses stock price and option pricing theory although there are several methods for the calculation. Financial statements showing the debt repayment capacity of individual companies are difficult to obtain at any time. On the other hand, "stock prices" are considered to incorporate information such as corporate value and debt repayment capacity in a timely manner. Therefore, by processing the "stock price," we calculate the estimated PD quickly. Specifically, we consider "stock value = call option value with corporate assets as underlying assets" and estimate the probability that the stock value becomes negative (i.e., the "probability of default," which is the probability of becoming insolvent).

At a Glance
QUICK Analysis Report
Delivery Method
(1) Sector average: TSE industrial sectors
(2) Individual stocks: Stocks included in TOPIX500 (excluding Financials)
Historical Data
Daily: Past 999 business days
Sales Territory
Pricing Models
Monthly subscription


Results Forecast
The Results Forecast Comment summarizes the result forecasts, commentaries, and other materials disclosed by the companies, and uses the following two comments.
(1) Automatically-generated comments: Comments that are automatically generated by using language analysis technology to read the materials disclosed on TDnet (timely disclosure information service) of the Tokyo Stock Exchange; and
(2) Excerpted comments on company plans: Excerpted comments on company plans from the Main Points Report and the IPO Follow-up Report (*1) published by the QUICK Corporate Valuation Research Center.
*1. A report summarizing the materials/commentaries by the companies and factual reporting from a neutral perspective.
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Financial Results
The Financial Results Score is a reference index which statistically calculates the degree of impact that financial results and revisions of results forecasts disclosed by companies have on stock prices. The reaction of stock prices to announcements of financial results and results forecasts will vary depending not only on how good or bad the announcement is but also on market assumptions and the degree to which its impact have been incorporated. The Financial Results Score takes major revenue items such as sales, classifies them based on comparisons with (1) the results of the previous term, (2) the latest company forecasts, and (3) market forecasts (QUICK consensus), and aggregates and calculates how similar patterns impacted past and subsequent stock prices. A positive Financial Results Score indicates that the current financial results will likely to boost stock prices, while a negative Financial Results Score indicates that the results will likely to lead to falling stock prices statistically.
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Transcripts of
earnings meetings
This service provides local language and English transcripts of investor-targeted events such as shareholder meetings, earnings meetings in Japan and APAC. It is an innovative service that provides text, audio, and images on time. Meta information of events and the full meeting transcript also can be utilized for text analysis.
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